Summary of an article by Kliment Robev
In brief
In a piece for Forbes Bulgaria, Kliment Robev examines Donald Trump’s paradox for financial markets: his administration creates real opportunities for disciplined investors, yet he is himself the source of much of the volatility. Robev describes the recurring cycle of “Trump crises” and asks whether the 2026 war with Iran could break the pattern.
Key points
- During Trump’s first term the S&P 500 delivered a total return of more than 80% — the fourth-best result of any presidential term since 1980. The real story, though, is not the end result but the volatility.
- A four-step cycle: a dramatic announcement (tariffs, an ultimatum) → market panic → a reversal (a political correction, a Federal Reserve response or simple normalisation) → a rally, often to new highs. Examples: March 2020 and “Liberation Day” in April 2025.
- Wall Street calls the phenomenon TACO (“Trump Always Chickens Out”). Robev asks whether it is a rule, or a habit that could prove dangerous.
- Three reasons this time may be different: geopolitical risk without an “off switch” in the war with Iran, inflationary pressure with oil above $100 a barrel, and limited room for manoeuvre at the Federal Reserve.
- Since 1950 every S&P 500 crisis has ended in recovery, but history is no guarantee. Trust wears out gradually — as in the fable of the boy who cried wolf.
Context
Published on 3 April 2026, a little over a month after the US and Israel began military operations against Iran (28 February 2026), with the S&P 500 down for the year and oil more than 50% higher since the start of the conflict.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
