Markets, Rates & Valuations

In his articles and appearances, Kliment Robev traces how interest rates, inflation and geopolitics feed through into financial market valuations. In his 2024 annual review, “Rates are falling, AI is rising: are we ready for 2025?”, he identified central bank policy and the return on vast investment in artificial intelligence as the key themes, and named as the main risk a pro-inflationary US policy that could slow the pace of rate cuts. He has also repeatedly warned about high concentration and valuations in the technology sector.

In his view, markets measure everything by the balance between the risk taken and the potential return. In “Risk appetite in wartime”, written in 2025, he explains why stock indices in countries affected by war ranked among the best performers: financial markets “have no conscience”, look for opportunities rather than fairness, and often rise in the darkest moments.

In 2026 the emphasis shifts to inflation. In the podcast “The end of calm: a new inflation cycle begins” he describes how the oil shock reaches the prices of fuel, food and credit, and speaks of a real risk of stagflation. In television commentary he notes that, with expectations of a longer period of high rates, the market pays not for promises but for cash flow and profits delivered today. The common thread is the chain he follows – from geopolitics and oil, through inflation and interest rates, to company valuations.