Summary of a television interview · Based on the recording of the conversation
In brief
Kliment Robev discusses the trade talks between the European Union and the United States ahead of the 1 August deadline. He is optimistic that a deal will be reached but less so about its terms, and believes both sides are largely bluffing, since neither Washington nor Brussels wants a trade war. In his view, tariffs work as a hidden tax that is ultimately paid by consumers on both sides of the Atlantic.
Key points
- Robev argues that the talks should not be seen merely as a diplomatic exercise, because tariffs are a hidden tax paid by the end consumer, and Europe faces a choice between a not particularly favourable deal and no deal at all, which would be even more damaging.
- He expects the target rate to be around 15%, half of the 30% threatened from 1 August, provided Europe commits to investing in the US and buying more American goods.
- In his view, Donald Trump wants European goods to be produced on US soil, creating jobs, boosting investment and supporting the reindustrialisation of the country.
- European leaders, particularly in Germany and France, have said they are ready to respond with reciprocal 30% tariffs on a much wider range of goods, but Robev believes both sides are mostly bluffing, and that the extension granted after the original 9 July deadline shows a deal is Trump’s priority.
- He expects the EU to follow the Japanese model: Japan secured 15% tariffs in exchange for a commitment to invest 550 billion dollars in the US and to import more American goods, above all rice and cars.
- Taking Germany as an example – it exports cars and heavy machinery worth around 80 billion euros a year to the US – he explains that higher tariffs would cut American demand and push European manufacturers to make up the losses through new markets or higher prices at home, so the tariffs would rebound on everyone, European consumers included.
Context
The conversation was prompted by Donald Trump’s statement that the US is ready to lower tariffs on European goods if the EU opens its market further to American companies, and by the approaching 1 August deadline, from which 30% tariffs were threatened.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
