Summary of an article by Kliment Robev
In brief
Kliment Robev compares today’s euphoria around artificial intelligence with the dot-com mania of 2000 and concludes that today’s tech giants stand on far firmer ground — but that market concentration is both a strength and a weakness.
Key points
- Then and now, technology makes up more than a third of the S&P 500. Unlike in 2000, though, today’s giants generate record profits: the “Magnificent Seven” have invested more than $300 billion in AI since the start of the year, with combined profits of nearly $500 billion over the last 12 months.
- Concentration is a strength because of real revenues and competitive advantages — and a weakness because the market’s enthusiasm depends on the growth of a small number of companies.
- “Don’t chase the winds when you can own the harbour”: rather than guessing which AI products will succeed, Robev looks to the infrastructure — semiconductors, cloud services and data centres. The value, he argues, is in the “shovels”, not the “gold”.
- The Nvidia–OpenAI deal illustrates the point: OpenAI gains the platform it needs, while Nvidia wins twice — as investor and as main supplier.
- Technological revolutions usually pass through three phases. Robev places us somewhere between the first and second: the euphoria is still here, but the first signs of sobering are appearing. Selectivity and durable infrastructure are the investor’s protection.
Context
Published on 6 October 2025, amid record investment in artificial intelligence and increasingly frequent comparisons with the dot-com bubble of 2000.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
