Summary of an article by Kliment Robev
In brief
Weeks after the tariffs announced on 2 April, Kliment Robev explains the logic behind Donald Trump’s tariff policy, how different countries are responding, and why strong market swings will be the new normal.
Key points
- Investors cannot predict what Trump will post tomorrow, but they can control their own actions: knowing in advance under what circumstances, why and how much they will invest. That is how they handle their greatest enemy — their emotions.
- Tariffs act like shockwaves through supply chains: they hit prices, squeeze margins, redirect investment and can briefly paralyse entire production lines.
- In Robev’s view Trump’s aim is not a trade war against the whole world but leverage for negotiations — and a lower budget deficit through lower spending and higher tariff revenue.
- Countries are responding differently: the EU and Japan are waiting, more than 50 countries — among them Canada, Mexico and Vietnam, the most dependent on exports to the US — are ready to negotiate, while US–China tariffs escalate to 125%.
- The response of other countries and the success of the negotiations will decide the direction of capital markets in 2025 and the risk of a global trade war and economic crisis.
Context
Published on 23 April 2025, three weeks after “Liberation Day” (2 April) and during the 90-day pause on part of the tariffs.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
