Summary of an article by Kliment Robev
In brief
A few days before Donald Trump took office, Kliment Robev looks at the markets’ post-election optimism and warns that the new administration’s unpredictability will bring increasingly frequent bouts of high volatility.
Key points
- The pro-business agenda — less regulation, incentives for domestic industry and corporate tax relief — underpinned the strong optimism in capital markets after the election.
- The same policies also guarantee rising geopolitical uncertainty: a new stage of trade wars, pressure for higher NATO defence budgets, and claims on the Panama Canal, Canada and Greenland.
- Robev sets out the “leading roles”: Elon Musk as the “bad cop” of government efficiency, Jerome Powell as the likely “scapegoat” in an economic slowdown, and J. D. Vance as the “golden reserve”.
- “Money flees the unknown” — in his view Wall Street is pretending to be pleasantly distracted by Trump’s and Musk’s rhetoric.
- His expectation: periodic market shocks that bring both risks and interesting investment opportunities.
Context
Published on 16 January 2025, four days before Trump’s inauguration, after a rally in which bitcoin passed $100,000 and Tesla added hundreds of billions of dollars in market value since 6 November.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
