Episode summary · Based on the recording of the conversation
In brief
This episode mirrors the previous one: Kliment Robev and his co-host look at when to sell an investment through the same six lenses, adding the psychology of the exit. In Kliment’s view, selling is the harder decision because investors have less control on the way out – the market, the macro environment or the company itself often dictate the situation – and it tests character as well as knowledge.
Key points
- Both argue that macroeconomics should not drive the decision to sell, because markets move ahead of the economy and by the time bad data reaches the news the correction has usually happened; Kliment sees sector signals as more useful – the macro backdrop no longer supports the sector, it loses relative strength against the wider market, or earnings forecasts deteriorate.
- As a practical tool he describes using artificial intelligence to analyse transcripts of management’s post-results meetings with investors – the tone of the executives, how often positive, cautionary and deferring words appear and which manager uses them – stressing that this is food for thought rather than a guarantee; his co-host adds that a serious warning sign is when management starts talking about optimisation and efficiency.
- In Kliment’s view, selling as soon as a pre-set price is reached carries the trap of missed gains, because markets are inertial and an overvalued stock can stay overvalued for a long time, so he discusses more flexible approaches – exiting in stages, hedging with options and a trailing stop that follows the price upwards.
- He believes technical analysis helps take emotion out of the exit – for example by placing the sale below key resistance levels the price has repeatedly failed to break – and uses the dollar–yen example to show that a purely technical breakout can mislead if the risk of central bank intervention is ignored.
- The two distinguish three profiles: the speculator sells often and should calculate risk in advance as a percentage of capital, the active investor sells rarely and only after signals accumulate, and the passive investor almost never sells – Kliment noting the paradox that the less often you press the sell button, the more successful you tend to be.
- On a personal note he describes two approaches: a staged exit from assets with very high potential – a first sale at five times the purchase price to take out the original stake, followed by further steps at higher levels – and a second position in a small company after a sharp fall, sold when the price returns to the original entry level while the first is held for the long term.
Context
Episode 6 of season two of the podcast “Пари и посоки” (Money and Directions). The topic was prompted by feedback on the previous episode about when to buy, after which one of the most common questions was when to sell; at the end the hosts announce a summer break until September.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
