Summary of a television interview · Based on the recording of the conversation
In brief
Kliment Robev discusses how Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy is weighing on US markets and on the fortunes of the billionaires around him, with a focus on Elon Musk. In his view, Musk is to some extent sacrificing Tesla and using X as a platform for politics, while SpaceX is likely to be the biggest winner among his companies because of its importance to US defence and geopolitics.
Key points
- Robev does not expect the billionaires to turn against Trump; he attributes the fall in US indices, led by the “Magnificent Seven”, to the constantly shifting rhetoric on tariffs, which confuses investors and prompts them to lock in profits, while European indices have recovered, led by defence companies.
- He identifies a return of inflation in the US as the main risk, since the trade war is inflationary and could push the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy again.
- He sees a negative outlook for Tesla: its shares have fallen by around 50% from their December 2024 record, wiping out about a third of Musk’s wealth, and the company faces damage from Musk’s image in the US and Europe, tariffs on Canada, where it sources parts, and weaker demand in China, where local rivals such as BYD are cheaper.
- In his view, Tesla’s future depends on artificial intelligence: he is more optimistic about humanoid robots, with around 10,000 units planned this year and mass production from next year, than about robotaxis, where Tesla lags behind Chinese competitors and risks its brand in the event of accidents.
- He agrees that SpaceX is the company Musk is focusing on: it matters for US defence, already holds contracts worth tens of billions of dollars, and its subsidiary Starlink is the backbone of communications in Ukraine – a lever of influence, although he doubts Musk would actually switch it off.
- On the cuts to the federal administration, he considers the idea logical for a heavily indebted country, but says some cuts were mistaken and that Trump uses Musk as the “bad cop”; he describes tariffs as “a political tool with an economic alibi” and notes that historically high tariffs have not benefited the US.
Context
The conversation was prompted by the shrinking fortunes of the wealthiest American entrepreneurs who stood behind Trump at his inauguration in January, amid new tariffs and a sharp fall in Tesla’s share price. Trump’s statement that he would buy a Tesla to support the company and his pledge that the US will plant its flag on Mars are also discussed.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
