Summary of a television interview · Based on the recording of the conversation
In brief
On Bulgaria ON AIR, Kliment Robev discusses President-elect Donald Trump’s plan for 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese goods. In his view, the car industry is the most exposed sector because production is multi-component and global, and tariffs mean both higher prices for consumers and falling share prices for investors.
Key points
- Kliment Robev recalls the maxim that markets love certainty and money flees the unknown, noting that to his voters Trump is “the certain president”, while to America’s trading partners he is an unknown quantity carrying a range of risks.
- For the car industry, he says, “the word tariff means fire”, pointing out that Germany is the US’s largest trading partner in Europe, with exports to the US of around €158bn last year, of which about 15% came from the automotive sector.
- He sees tariffs mainly as a tool of policy and negotiation – those on Mexico and Canada, for example, were presented as temporary until the two countries curb migration flows – and is sceptical that the universal 10–20% tariff on European imports promised during the campaign will be introduced soon.
- In his view, European carmakers are stuck in “no man’s land” between Tesla, favoured by young, innovation-minded buyers, and Chinese brands, which attract pragmatic consumers, because their finances do not allow them to build cheap cars and they lag too far behind technologically to establish themselves in the premium segment.
- He argues that nobody wins a trade war and consumers lose most; tariffs would push car prices up, but Chinese manufacturers produce cheaply enough to remain competitive even with tariffs, and their quality has nearly caught up, partly because they hire designers from well-known European brands – which is why he sees China no longer as a trading partner but as a major competitor.
- On the Bulgarian market, he notes that purchases of new cars are declining and over 70% of the car fleet is more than 15 years old, while people born after 2000 see a car more like a smartphone, valuing its technology over the brand and engine power.
Context
The conversation was prompted by President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement that on his first day in office he would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, after which shares in European carmakers fell.
Views reflect his position at the date of publication and are not investment advice. Regulatory information
